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Prediction for CME (2023-06-04T10:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-06-04T10:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25453/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the southwest in all coronagraphs (SOHO LASCO C2/C3, STEREO A COR2). Leading edge is faint and wide. Source is a large filament eruption seen spanning from about S32W10 to S10W50 in SDO AIA 304 starting at about 2023-06-04T09:00Z (Centered at S25W30). Post-eruptive dimming can be seen in SDO AIA 193 along the southwest quadrant of the Sun at 09:27Z, and ejecta can be seen off the southwest limb in SDO AIA 171 at 09:42Z. The filament can also be seen erupting in STEREO A EUVI 195/304 starting at 08:25Z/8:15Z, respectively. From LASSOS team discussion: this signature is likely a flank arrival of a CME passing West of Earth.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-06-07T22:25Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-06-07T02:21Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-06-04 15:44
 - Time at C2: 2023-06-04 10:24
 - Radial speed: 692.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 33 deg
 - Eruption location: S12W30
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 613.60 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2023-06-07 02:21 (i.e. predicted transit time: 63.95 hours)
Lead Time: 75.42 hour(s)
Difference: 20.07 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2023-06-04T19:00Z
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